Monday, December 17, 2007

Broken Transmute Mastery Proc: Confirmed by Blue (EU)

Since patch 2.3, many players have been reporting very low proc rates on Transmute Mastery and increased rates of discovery.

I had 3 discoveries in one week, but have not had an extra transmute product since 2.3 was released. I perform about 5-6 transmutes per week. That is about 30 days of transmutes with zero products. Using a binomial distribution, the probability of zero procs after 30 tries is: 0.007630759594789478 or about 0.8%, which is low, but possible.

While many Transmute masters exist in WoW who could experience very low rates, it has been obvious that many perceived an error in the proc, albeit without having rigorous numbers:

Curious to see if there was any truth to this, I conducted a poll based in this blog and off of the Profession forums.

The results were:
Procs: 11
No Procs: 53

Assuming a binomial distribution with a probability of 0.15, that translates to:
17% proc rate
p-value (z; one-sided) of 0.312

That is a 31% chance that 15% is the true proc rate. Most consider 5% to be the threshold below which the original assumption is rejected (that 15% isn't the proc rate and that the proc rate is lower).

I was very much ready to report that the proc wasn't broken (based on my limited sample), when on the US forums a troll finds an EU CM who writes:

/*Translated by Google:*/

"Hello again!

We are too new evidence arrives, the masters of transmutation concern: The "Proc" is currently in fact too rarely triggered. This error will be corrected for the next patch. An appropriate notice will you, when available, in our patch notes:

I wish you a nice weekend!


....So, it probably is broken, as people thought. However, the US CMs haven't commented on this to-date. We shall see what becomes of this issue, which went down a bit ugly-like in terms of so many players posting that their T-mute mastery was broken without a Blue response.

I don't want to flame the CMs, but this seemed like a legitimate concern shared by many players. For comparison, follow the link on the blog to see all the other nonsense that the Blues DO address in the forums.

Maybe we'll get some extra Transmutes in the mail for the Feast?


Chunter said...

I just got a x 4 proc... I have had like.... 4 or 5 x 2 ever and thats it.